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Exit Poll Review - UP & West Bengal || Lok Sabha Elections 2019

After completion of Lok Sabha Voting process nationally, several media houses release their Exit Poll data. Exit poll data is the data collected by voters just after they come out of the voting booth. In case of an opinion poll, it is the data which is collected by asking voters whom they will vote and reasons for the vote.


UTTAR PRADESH

Let us first take a look at the UP exit poll, in 2014 BJP won 73 seats out of 80 and because of that, it is a challenge for BJP to maintain this tally and a task for opposition to break the bond between voters and BJP. With the latest Exit poll, it is clear that BJP is winning more than 60 seats. The actual seats may vary between 62-68 seats.

This numbers may be good but BJP is losing around 10-12 seats and that will be interesting to see whether Mahagathbandhan or Congress snatched their seat.
Analysis of the winning potential can be calculated by the number of educated people and employed people with respect to unemployed and/or uneducated people.

WEST BENGAL

A fortress for TMC as they won 34 seats out of 42 in previous elections (2014), but in recent Exit poll it is clear that the competition is tough. After several allegation rows and overall rally drama, it was clear that people need more development and we can see a change in 2019 results.
With the current scenario, it is clear that TMC is losing around 10-15 seats in the upcoming results. BJP on the other hand gains around 15 seats. Will the wave change in West Bengal?

What can be actually analyzed from these reports are,
1) People in both states were not happy with their MP (not all but some)
2) Transfer of votes due to the formation of a coalition.

These two states were a center of focus in current election as UP seat decides who will have an advantage and a change in West Bengal seat pattern will give a hint that the TMC regime will come to an end.

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